See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.
List of All Posters
How are Runs Really Created - Third Installment
September 16, 2002 - Arvin Engen
1. In the home run example, are you accounting for the fact that games in which more home runs are hit are likely to be associated with favorable batting conditions in general, e.g. the wind blowing out on a humid July day at Coors Field with Jose Lima pitching?
That is, the number of home runs hit isn't independent of other run-generating events. It's not that more runners are scoring per home run when a large number of home runs are hit, but rather, that there are more (run-generating) singles, doubles and triples in these games as well.
2. Your criticism of runs created is a bit like telling the policeman who has just pulled you over that his radar gun is unreliable because it has failed to account for special relativity.
Why the hell should I care about extreme outcomes? If I'm a major league GM, how does BaseRuns help me to build a better team? Does it have better predictive value than runs created? Does it do a better job of explaining run creation in "realistic extreme" environments such as Barry Bonds 01/02 or the Deadball Era or Coors Field?
Copyright notice
Comments on this page were made by person(s) with the same handle, in various comments areas, following Tangotiger © material, on Baseball Primer. All content on this page remain the sole copyright of the author of those comments.
If you are the author, and you wish to have these comments removed from this site, please send me an email (tangotiger@yahoo.com), along with (1) the URL of this page, and (2) a statement that you are in fact the author of all comments on this page, and I will promptly remove them.